In Mod We Trust
By Anna Schwartz

Sen. John Kerry was quick to declare victory at the New Hampshire primary, announcing his triumphal speech even before the majority of districts had reported. Victory in New Hampshire was imperative for Kerry to maintain the momentum that began with his surprising Iowa victory. Moderate Democrats have come to Kerry in droves – and the February 3rd states (New Mexico, North Dakota, South Carolina, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Delaware) are all states in which the more moderate candidates are likely to fare well; Democratic voters in these states, especially the Southern ones, tend to be more centrist than their Northeastern and Western counterparts.

Although the race is far from over after next week, early success translates to an influx of campaign donations for the leading candidates – and, as history has shown, money (or lack thereof) can make or break a campaign in these early months. Without an imminent victory, the more conservative candidates – specifically Senator Lieberman and General Clark – may soon drop out of the running due to lack of funds. Kerry is the most obvious second choice for the supporters of these candidates, as his platform is distinct from the populist hysterics of Dr. Dean. Moderate voters in New Hampshire preferred Kerry to Dean by a margin of 2:1, or 43% to 18%, according to exit polls.

As of last quarter, Kerry was second to Dean in funds raised -- $20 million, only $5 million behind Dr. Dean (both candidates have decided to forego federal fund-matching in order to have unrestricted ability to spend). Kerry’s decisive victories in Iowa and New Hampshire will no doubt reap the benefits, both strategic and financial, of the fast-imploding Dean campaign.

With Kerry as the frontrunner, November looks promising for the Democrats – that is, if and only if Kerry selects Edwards as his running mate. The two candidates complement each other, and together, comprise the only genuine chance that the Democrats have to beat Bush. Kerry’s experience in the Senate and as Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts will offset Edwards’ relative inexperience; Edwards’ Southern roots will offset the handicap of Kerry’s association with old-school Massachusetts liberalism.

President Bush’s approval rating, currently holding strong at 59%, may falter in the months leading up to November if the economy does not recover as promised in last week’s State of the Union address. But a recent CNN/Gallup poll found that 50% of respondents thought that the Democrats would do a better job on key domestic issues, such as health care, education, and the economy. The Democrats may also benefit from the lengthened race, which has kept the candidates in the media spotlight far longer than the tenure of the primary season itself. Though Bush is still favored to win in the fall, the media frenzy over the Democratic candidates during this primary season will work to the Democrats’ advantage, creating the potential for a highly competitive election.

A Kerry/Edwards ticket will capitalize on this media exposure, with two of the top tier candidates who have received the least negative coverage (of late, Dr. Dean has taken a beating for his howling during what should have been his concession speech in Iowa). To win next fall, Kerry and Edwards must attack Bush where he lives; instead of framing the debate around God, Gays and Guns, the Democrats must frame the issues of the economy, health care, social security and tax cuts. Kerry is 2004’s “comeback kid,” and as long as he continues his current momentum, with Edwards as his running mate, he will march straight to the White House. Moderation, not red-faced agitation, is the key to opening the Pennsylvania Avenue gates.

Divide and Conquer
By Jermaine Smith

The Democratic primaries are heating up as election time comes near, and candidates are quickly discovering just how fickle the constituents can be.

Sen. Joe Lieberman is all but done, Gen. Wesley Clark is biding his time and Dr. Howard Dean is orchestrating his resurgence for the Democratic nomination. Rep. Kucinich should go home. Meanwhile, Sen. John Kerry has a commanding lead after winning both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries in impressive fashion.

What happens now?

Should Kerry continue to perform well in the upcoming primaries, he will indeed win the Democratic nomination and have an opportunity to unseat President Bush as Commander-in-Chief, but it is difficult to predict how well Kerry will compete in the South. Southern states, including primary-site South Carolina, are historically more conservative, but experts believe they will lean towards Dr. Dean and perhaps Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

Kerry’s great success should be surprising given that his more conservative agenda places him to the right of the other Democratic candidates, save for Senator Joe Lieberman. However, the platforms of the other Democratic candidates have pushed the Democratic Party into a more centrist position, a trend many liberal Democrats find disturbing. The Kerry campaign, moderate but effective, overshadows his less liberal characteristics and sets him apart from Gen. Clark and Dr. Dean, whose large deterrent remains their position on the war in Iraq.

These possible scenarios illustrate two key elements of this year’s election: first that the primaries can be unpredictable, and candidates can gain and lose ground with striking swiftness, and, more importantly, the divisions within the Democratic Party. This is evident this year more than recent election years.

This election year, the Democrats find themselves in a unique position. Reaching the White House is only an outside chance for most of the candidates, few of whom seem qualified to be leaders of the free world, and the sharp divide within the party only exacerbates this problem. This rift is rooted in the issues: healthcare, the economy, same-sex marriage and, of course, the war in Iraq. Interestingly enough, this election year is an excellent opportunity for a liberal candidate to make a strong impression; a candidate representing the opposing views of the current president would fare well, but many classify the current Democratic candidates as moderate at best. This lack of definition leaves many Democratic voters with the impression that the difference between Bush and Dean or Bush and Kerry is negligible.

This creates a logistical problem for the Democrats.

Should he win the nomination, the Kerry camp’s main concern will be the intentions of the remaining Democratic voters come November. While Kerry is doing well, there is no assurance that he will secure the votes that may other wise have gone to Dean or Clark; Clark’s campaign is a bit more moderate, Dean’s a bit more liberal, and the two seem to be largely splitting the remaining votes. The worst scenario may actually place those votes in the hands of Bush as voters looking for an extreme liberal may not be satisfied with Kerry, whose greatest draw is simply the label Democrat. In this sense, Democratic votes may be a vote against Bush more so than a vote for the best candidate.

However, with only about 1.5-2% of the delegates decided, it is far too early to label the winner of this race. Regardless, the Democrats must unify behind their nominee if they hope to remove Bush from the White House. Upsetting Bush in November may be a long shot, but it is not a pipe dream. If a single candidate from the party can fuse the gap of liberals and moderates, this year’s bid for the White House will be strong.